Air passenger demand may rise 31pc by 2017

GENEVA: Passenger demand for the commercial airline industry is expected to increase 31 per cent by 2017, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

By that year, total passenger numbers are expected to rise to 3.91 billion, an increase of 930 million passengers over the 2.98 billion flown last year, the association said in its IATA Airline Industry Forecast 2013-2017, a consensus outlook for system-wide passenger growth.

IATA said the demand is expected to expand by an average of 5.4 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2013 and 2017. 

"By comparison, global passenger growth expanded by 4.3 per cent CAGR between 2008 and 2012, largely reflecting the negative impact of the 2008 global financial crisis and recession.

"Of the new passengers, about 292 million will be carried on international routes and 638 million on domestic routes," it said.

IATA said the emerging economies of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific will see the strongest international passenger growth, with CAGR of 6.3 per cent and 5.7 per cent, followed by Africa and Latin America, with CAGR of 5.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent.

"Routes within or connected to China will be the single largest driver of growth, accounting for 24 per cent of new passengers during the forecast period.

"Of the anticipated 227.4 million additional passengers, 195 million will be domestic and 32.4 million will be international," it said.

IATA said the Asia-Pacific region (including China) is expected to add around 300 million additional passengers by the end of the current forecast horizon. 

IATA Director-General and Chief Executive Officer Tony Tyler said the fact that the Asia-Pacific region led by China and the Middle East will deliver the strongest growth over the forecast period was not surprising. 

"The governments in both areas recognise the value of the connectivity provided by the aviation industry to drive global trade and development. Similar opportunities exist for developing regions in Africa and Latin America. 

"To reap the benefits, the governments in those regions will need to change their view of aviation from a luxury cash cow to a utilitarian powerful draft horse to pull the economy forward," he added.